Copper prices pulled back, downstream continued to be bearish, daily trading volume declined compared to the previous day [SMM Shanghai spot copper].

Published: Apr 3, 2025 11:54

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【SMM Spot Copper】The futures market declined, and downstream buyers actively priced below 79,050 yuan/mt, but bearish sentiment rose, leading to a decrease in purchase volume compared to yesterday. According to SMM data, Shanghai's inventory on Thursday recorded 210,786 mt, down nearly 8,000 mt from Monday. During the week, copper prices fell, increasing downstream cargo pick-up sentiment, along with stockpiling factors for the Qingming Festival. Spot premiums are expected to rise further next week, but with warrants still not significantly digested, the increase is expected to be limited.

SMM April 3 News: Today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode against the SHFE copper 2504 contract were reported at a premium of 10-60 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 35 yuan/mt, up by 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price was 79,010-79,290 yuan/mt. Following the implementation of tariffs, copper prices declined due to macro factors. In the early session, the LME's sharp drop drove the SHFE copper 2504 contract below 79,000 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers actively priced in, and the futures market gradually rebounded above 79,000 yuan/mt. During the first trading session, the futures market briefly touched around 79,250 yuan/mt multiple times before pulling back, subsequently fluctuating around 79,050 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts fluctuated between 10-50 yuan/mt, and suppliers moderately sold based on the profit margin from the spread. The import profit/loss of the SHFE copper current month contract slightly widened to a loss of 589.46 yuan/mt.

Intraday spot activity increased compared to yesterday, but overall trading volume decreased. In the early session, traders quoted higher premiums, with mainstream standard-quality copper at 30-50 yuan/mt and high-quality copper around 60 yuan/mt. At this time, some suppliers offered discounts on premiums to around 30 yuan/mt for mainstream standard-quality copper, taking advantage of the 30-50 yuan/mt spread profit. As the main trading session began, downstream buyers bargained down purchasing prices for stockpiling ahead of the Qingming Festival, but suppliers, optimistic about future premiums, were reluctant to sell at lower prices. In the second trading session, mainstream standard-quality copper traded at 10-30 yuan/mt. SX-EW copper remained scarce, with a small amount of ESOX trading at -20 to parity. Non-registered sources continued to sell throughout the week, with tight supply, and intraday trades were recorded at -70 to -50 yuan/mt.

As the futures market declined, downstream buyers actively priced in below 79,050 yuan/mt, but bearish sentiment rose, and intraday purchase volume decreased compared to yesterday. According to SMM data, Shanghai's inventory on Thursday was recorded at 210,786 mt, down by nearly 8,000 mt from Monday. During the week, the decline in copper prices increased downstream cargo pick-up sentiment, coupled with stockpiling for the Qingming Festival. Spot premiums are expected to rise further next week, but with warrants still not significantly digested, the increase is expected to be limited.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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